Global Strategies

Forecast of Russia’s fragmentation

Created on Monday, 02 February 2015 10:51 Published Date
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By Kukhaleishvili Georgii, Political Analyst from Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin (C) chairs a meeting with members of the government at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, February 18, 2015. REUTERS/Mikhail Klimentyev/RIA Novosti/KremlinMany articles are full of reasons and factors that can affect Russia’s fragmentation to a scope of new states. Though, there is no equal opinion how long will exist Russia within socio-economic crisis and in the event of deepening of current sanctions. It is not comparable with USSR which government maintained existence of socialist state with its own political and ideological system of values and economic standards by partial international isolation. The deepening of international isolation for Russia which economy strongly depends on export of raw resources and integrated into the system of market relations is the same as death. Economic sanctions some day or other will awake separatist tendencies in the regions of federation.

Russia is often spoken not to be compared with the case of Yugoslavia because it has a nuclear weapon and no one dares crush this state.  But what did affect the initiation of fragmentation of Yugoslavia in 1991? The beginning of its collapse was not even NATO led operation, but demonstrations for independence in Slovenia and Croatia that after the Serb’s riot actions transformed into the armed resistance, supported by West. When the idea of Community of Sovereign States, proposed by M. Gorbachov, the last USSR Secretary General, was popular among Soviet states, in spite of existence of Soviet Russia its integral parts including Komi, Tatarstan, Udmurtia, Yakutia, Chukotka Autonomous Region, Adygea, Buryatia, Bashkiria, Kalmykia, Mari Republic, Chuvashia, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area, Altai and the Irkutsk Region, proclaimed the sovereignty. During the first years of economically instable Russian Federation after the USSR had collapsed, political destabilization was not only in Moscow (October coup d'etat in 1993) and Chechnya (The first War in 1994-96) but also in other parts of Russian failed state with enormous territory and resources. There are few people who speak about separatist tendencies in Ural and Siberia in early 90-s. And if Russia succeeded in finding out consent with rich Tatarstan by deepening its autonomous status, the Kremlin acted without any compromises with self-proclaimed Ural republic, South-Ural republic, Kuban Cossack republic and Karelia. It is time to say that nowadays, due to the influence of current sanctions, separatist tendencies start to reborn in Siberia, Don and Kaliningrad region.

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By Marios Efthymiopoulos, Founder and CEO of Strategy International.

Once upon a time… as in fairytales, a dear friend asked me of my thoughts and foresights about what is going to happen in the world in 2013 and thus possibly in 2014.


The question was inquired to me amidst celebrations in a friendly environment, at a private New Year’s party of 2012, while the world was getting ready to welcome 2013. 2013 is now considered to be in a state of financial, social and political flux at different levels, sectors, environments and places as things progress and issues develop.

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H Παγκοσμοιοπήση του Πολέμου

Created on Tuesday, 03 July 2012 14:27 Published Date
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Global War of 2014 UPDATEDΗ κατάρριψη του τουρκικού αεροσκάφους στις 22 Ιουνίου, μάλλον δεν πρέπει να θεωρηθεί απλά ως μια σημειακή εχθρική ενέργεια αλλά είναι πολύ πιο πιθανό το ενδεχόμενο μιας παρέμβασης στην αναζήτηση περιφερειακής ισχύος. Και αυτό απορρέει από την αλληλουχία των γεγονότων, αφού μετά την κατάρριψη του τουρκικού μαχητικού αεροσκάφους F-4 από τη συριακή αεράμυνα, η τουρκική κυβέρνηση άσκησε απλά το δικαίωμά της να ζητήσει την υποστήριξη του ΝΑΤΟ, διαμαρτυρήθηκε προς το Συμβούλιο Ασφαλείας των Ηνωμένων Εθνών, απέστειλε διάβημα στη Δαμασκό και τέλος τροποποίησε τους κανόνες εμπλοκής κατά μήκος των συνόρων της με τη Συρία.


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